In the upcoming year 2024, India will see the largest FII inflows that the country has ever seen, said Atul Suri, chief executive officer of Marathon Trends Advisory. “As bond yields are going down, I won’t be surprised if I see a tsunami of FIIs coming to India,” said Suri in an interaction with CNBC TV18.
Benchmark 10-year US treasury yields stood at 3.88 percent last week, their lowest level since July, after having scaled 5 percent in October. High yields are a clear negative for equities, especially those in emerging markets such as India as it takes away the incentive to invest in these markets after adjustments due to currency fluctuations.
Suri said domestic capital flows are stable and will continue through systematic investment plans. In the year gone by, domestic institutional investors bought equities worth Rs 1.85 lakh crore while FIIs bought Rs 1.59 lakh crore.
Also read: Indian market to keep going up despite negative global cues: Atul Suri of Marathon Trends
Suri said he is keeping an eye on the small-cap Russell 2000 index for 'very significant alpha.' He further said that the 2024 US bull market will be led by industrials.
He bets on the Dow Jones Industrials or the Russell 2000 rather than the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 is just 1 percent away from a lifetime high. The Nasdaq is 7-8 percent away from its lifetime high. However, he emphasised that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has already reached lifetime highs.
Back home, Suri also said he is closely monitoring stocks in the defence and railway sectors. He said there was a strong influx of defence orders and enforcement was underway. In the past one year, stocks like HAL, BHEL, RVNL, Titagarh Rail have doubled investors' wealth.
Also Read | Nifty at 20k: Here’s Atul Suri’s take on what can stop the market rally
Qualitative changes are occurring in rail transport. “One must actually travel intercity by train, and you will realise that it's actually better than flying in an aircraft. If you travel by Vande Bharat or Tejas you will know that there is a qualitative shift that has happened in railways,” he said.
He also added that in a bull market, sometimes one sector is dominant, and sometimes another sector is dominant. Therefore, it makes no sense for investors to rebalance their portfolios weekly or monthly
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